A 40 percent chance of showers. Snow level 6400 feet rising to 7100 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Forecast discussion
824
FXUS66 KOTX 221739
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm Memorial Day Weekend with a minor heat risk.
Temperatures warming into the 80s Sunday into Memorial Day.
Water temperatures remain cold.
- Widely scattered showers with a 10-30 percent chance of
thunderstorms Sunday night into Memorial Day.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will spread clouds and light showers
across the region today. Temperatures see a gradual warming
trend into the holiday weekend and will become warm by Sunday
into early next week with temperatures climbing into the 80s.
There is growing potential for showers and thunderstorms from
Sunday night into Memorial Day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: POP`s were increased for the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area through early afternoon based on current radar trends with a weak
deformation band of light precipitation over the area. Also nudged
down high temperatures a few degrees for this same area. JW
Previous Discussion:
Today and tomorrow: Open mid level wave moving through the region
bringing increasing clouds and a band of rain through the
Columbia Basin, Palouse, and eventually Spokane/Cda area around
sunrise. Precip amounts with this band look light - only around a
trace to a few hundreths. Late this afternoon into the evening
there is a 10% chance of thunderstorms over the southern ID
Panhandle as late afternoon sun breaks allow for SB CAPE of up to
200 J/KG to develop. CAMs still show the best potential for
thunderstorms south and east of the area over central ID into NW
Montana closer to the upper level jet right exit region. As the
wave exits Thursday night and the lower atmosphere stabilizes
showers will come to an end. A weak vort max moving through the
region Friday will bring low end shower chances (15-20%) to
northeast Washington and north Idaho but similar to today the best
dynamics and thermodynamics are displaced to the southeast in
central ID and MT.
Saturday through Thursday: A strengthening ridge along the coast
will keep the region under dry and warm conditions through at least
Sunday. Temperatures Saturday in the 70s and 80s warm into the 80s
and low 90s by Sunday. Changes come Monday as 80% of the ensemble
shows an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska sending a shortwave
through the PNW. With this wave there will be very deep southerly
flow that will bring in an anomalous amount of moisture to the
region (PWATs 150-200 percent of normal). Will have to monitor the
potential for nocturnal thunderstorms Monday morning and perhaps
stronger thunderstorms Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, models start to
slowly rebuild a ridge. Where this ridge ends up will dictate how
warm and dry we become. Currently Spokane International Airport has
a 15% chance of 90+ degrees Wednesday May 28. That would be well
above the previous 30 year average of June 21. DB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak deformation band across eastern Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle this morning into the early afternoon
will produce light rain for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. The boundary layer
is starting out dry and the incoming rain won`t do much to
moisten it up with ceilings anticipate to only drop down to
between 4-6 kft AGL and VFR conditions prevailing. Although
winds will be fairly light today up to 7-10 kts, there will be a
wind shift of northeasterly to westerly between 18-20Z with the
passage of a low to the south. Showers will continue to be
prevalent closer to the low in the afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms south and east of KLWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions today. Chances for enough moisture to produce
lower ceilings for MVFR conditions at KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
remain at a 10% chance. There is high confidence that
thunderstorms this afternoon will remain south and east of KLWS
with less than a 10% chance for thunderstorms developing at the
terminal. JW
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane 59 42 67 44 74 48 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 59 43 67 43 74 47 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
Pullman 61 40 65 43 72 46 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 68 47 73 48 78 51 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 62 36 68 38 75 43 / 30 10 20 10 0 0
Sandpoint 61 42 67 43 73 46 / 30 30 30 0 0 0
Kellogg 61 45 65 46 73 49 / 50 50 20 0 0 0
Moses Lake 69 42 75 46 80 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 71 47 75 50 80 56 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 70 43 74 46 79 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
Nearest avalanche forecast regions
Selkirks & Cabinets
36mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Selkirks & Cabinets
36mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Kootenai
55mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
St. Regis & Silver Valley
97mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
St. Regis & Silver Valley
97mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Whitefish Range
104mi away by Flathead Avalanche Center
No data reported
Swan Range
137mi away by Flathead Avalanche Center
No data reported
Flathead Range & Glacier NP
144mi away by Flathead Avalanche Center
No data reported
East Slopes North
165mi away by Northwest Avalanche Center
No Rating - Watch for signs of unstable snow such as recent avalanches, cracking in the snow, and audible collapsing. Avoid traveling on or under similar slopes.
Rattlesnake
179mi away by West Central Montana Avalanche Center
