774
FXUS65 KSLC 152151
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
351 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue through Monday, with a
brief cooldown Tuesday behind a dry cold frontal passage. High
pressure quickly builds back in along with increasing heat,
potentially to excessive levels by Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...This afternoon`s satellite
water vapor loop looks quite similar to this time yesterday. The
Great Basin remains placed between a large trough in the PacNW and
a broad ridge extending into the Four Corners region, which is
yielding a deep southwesterly flow regime overhead locally. What
little mid/upper moisture is advecting through overhead is
resulting in some minimal cloud cover, but otherwise the
aforementioned ridge is bringing widespread heat. To that end,
seeing afternoon highs today run about 10-20F above climatological
normal at most locations.
After another mild night, Monday will see somewhat similar
conditions, albeit with the synoptic pattern beginning to shift
slightly. To that end, a lobe of the larger scale PacNW trough
will start to shift inland from the Pacific coast. In turn, deep
flow will become a bit further enhanced, but we`ll see H7
temperatures at areas across the northern half of the forecast
area decrease as the ridge is slightly flattened. As such, while
temperatures across the south will remain pretty close to that of
Sunday, temperatures at areas further north will dip some. With
the stronger flow aloft, mixing due to daytime heating will result
in a corresponding increase in modest afternoon/evening wind
gusts, especially across southern and eastern Utah.
Late Monday evening on into the night, the trough and an
associated frontal boundary will start pushing into and
subsequently through the forecast area. Moisture with this feature
appears to be very limited and largely confined to the mid/upper
levels of the atmosphere, so thinking it`ll be hard to wring much
if anything out in terms of precip and we`ll see a dry frontal
passage. Still, a handful of CAMs do develop some exceedingly
isolated shower activity across northern Utah, so won`t entirely
rule out a quick sprinkle or two in a couple spots in northern
Utah into southwest Wyoming.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...A dry cold front and associated
longwave trough will have tracked across much of Utah by Tuesday
morning. The front will track south and east across southern Utah
into the afternoon. Although there is no measurable precipitation
forecast, there will be a slight cool down. Valley temperatures
will cool around 5-10F from Monday, with the most cooling for
southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. The several consecutive days
of low relative humidity, gusty southwest winds, and high fire
danger will be somewhat mitigated. Very dry conditions will
continue with northwest winds behind the front. Winds will be
occasionally gusty, but lighter throughout compared to Monday.
A ridge to the southeast will retrograde to off the coast of
southern California and Baja California as the trough tracks
through. The ridge will track slightly eastward Wednesday with
slightly warmer temperatures. Flow will be zonal to southwest with
relatively light wind speeds.
The pattern will become similar to early in the week for
Thursday, with the ridge in a similar position over Arizona and
New Mexico. As another longwave trough digs into the PacNW,
southwest flow will enhance. This will be with continued relative
humidity values each day into the single digits and teens. Along
with increased fire danger will be temperatures in record
territory for that day. The National Blend of Models brings triple
digits to most valleys, including the urban corridor of northern
Utah. The forecast high of 101F at Salt Lake City International
Airport would tie the record for that day. The warmest conditions
will be in lower Washington County, around Lake Powell, and into
eastern Utah.
There is good model agreement that the longwave trough will track
inland later Friday or Saturday. As it approaches, a pressure
gradient will strengthen, allowing for stronger southwest winds.
There will be slight cooling Friday as that system approaches, but
winds will likely increase from Thursday, continuing high fire
danger.
There is relatively good agreement on the track of that system
into Saturday, but precise timing of the front is lower
confidence. Saturday will be cooler than Friday, likely with a
cold front tracking into at least southwest Wyoming and northern
Utah at some point. South of that boundary, strong southwest winds
and low relative humidity will come with high fire danger.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeast winds will prevail through around 21Z.
Light speeds will last through around 15Z, with gusts around 20
knots from 15Z to when winds transition to northwest. The
transition to northwest flow will be between 19-21Z. Scattered
clouds will prevail with clearing into the evening.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light winds ranging from
southeast to southwest will prevail through around 15Z. Winds
will increase late morning into the afternoon, with gusts around
25 knots for southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah. Gusts will be
around 20 knots for most other portions of Utah. Scattered clouds
will prevail through the day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Forecast pattern continues to support very
warm and dry conditions. Additionally, daytime heating is
continuing to help result in modest wind gusts, which will
increase in magnitude on Monday. In turn, critical fire weather
conditions are expected across much of southern and eastern Utah,
and areal extent of Red Flag Warnings have been expanded. A dry
cold frontal boundary will pass through the area Monday night,
which will lead to a slight cooldown for Tuesday and Wednesday, as
well as reduced daytime winds. By Thursday the forecast pattern
will shift back to one similar to that of Monday, yielding hot,
dry and breezy conditions. Given this in addition to poor
overnight recoveries, will likely see areas of critical fire
weather conditions also return.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon Monday to midnight MDT Monday night
for UTZ482-489-492>498.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Wilson
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
