633
FXUS65 KSLC 161642
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1042 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will bring historically warm weather for March by
the middle of the upcoming week, with temperatures approaching
30F above seasonal normals continuing into the first part of the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Morning water vapor loop shows an expansive ridge
building along the Pacific coast. On the eastern periphery of
this ridge, the local forecast area is seeing moisture stream
through overhead, and in turn mostly cloudy skies. Strong 300 mb
and 500 mb winds are also noted overhead, translating to some
enhanced ridgetop winds at some of our mountain locations. This
strong flow may also help to squeeze out a couple light showers in
the high northern terrain, though nothing of real substance.
Otherwise, only forecast element of note today will be some modest
wind gusts downstream of areas in the western Uinta Basin, Castle
Country, and lower Washington County. High temperatures today
will run near to around 10F above seasonal normal, though for most
locations this will be the "coolest" day of the next week.
Moving into the week the robust ridge strengthens, slowly shifts
east, and becomes more centered atop the Desert Southwest. This
ridge will peak with 700 mb temperatures around +11C to +14C, and
mid level height anomalies around +25 dam to +30 dam. Locally,
this will result in a dry and stable period of weather with
increasingly warm temperatures. As early as Tuesday widespread
forecast highs around 10F to 20F above seasonal normal are
expected, pushing further to 20F to 30F above seasonal normal as
the week continues. To put it mildly, widespread record breaking
temperatures are pretty much a certainty, and many records will be
broken by impressive, if not historic margins. The one potential
limiting factor would be if the strong stabilizing influence of
the ridge could mute daytime mixing, given we still have a mid-
March sun angle... But even then, don`t believe it would be
sufficient to really mute the anomalous heat all that much.
Around the Sunday to Monday time frame, models tend to support
the northern jet starting to sink back south a bit, helping to
flatten and shift the ridge. Moisture looks to be fairly limited
at this time, so for now would anticipate most locations to remain
dry, but see a slight downward trend to the previous week`s heat.
Some ensemble members hint at maybe a bit more moisture returning
later on in the week, but there is not too much
consistency/agreement this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will transition to
northwesterly during the 19-20Z timeframe. There is a 20% chance
winds remain southeasterly through the day. CIGS will remain in the
6-7 KFT range through the afternoon, with a 30% chance these CIGS
scatter out after 20Z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions and
diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period. CIGS across
northern Utah will remain in the 5-7 KFT range through most of the
afternoon, before gradually scattering out this evening.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Seaman
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
