988
FXUS65 KBOI 220926
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
326 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...A cold-core upper-
level low centered over southwest Idaho this morning will track
east-northeast into Montana and Wyoming by late afternoon.
Scattered showers have already developed across southeast
Oregon, the West Central Mountains, and the Boise Mountains, and
will persist through the day. Snow levels have dropped to
around 6500 feet MSL across the northern mountain zones, with
snow possible down to 6000 feet this morning. However,
accumulations will be limited to elevations above 7000 feet,
where up to 2 inches of snow is possible - mainly in Valley
County.
Additional convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to redevelop this afternoon. The strongest cells may
produce small hail or graupel. Temperatures will warm slightly
compared to Saturday, but breezy northwesterly winds will
persist, keeping valley highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Conditions will dry out on Monday as the upper low exits the
region, though a broad upper-level trough will remain overhead.
Temperatures will remain below normal, generally about 5 degrees
below average. A return to near-seasonal temperatures is
expected on Tuesday as weak ridging builds over the area ahead
of the next upper-level trough approaching the West Coast.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Short-lived upper-level
ridging will be moving out midday Wednesday, but not before bringing
temps 5-10 degrees above normal. In its wake, another upper-level
trough will be moving through the Northwest U.S. through Saturday.
Consensus from model clustering, historic deterministic models, and
current deterministic models point to synoptic scale forcing for
ascent remaining to the north of our CWA. Some hints at
precipitation (and perhaps thunderstorms) exist in central Idaho,
but chances remain low at this time and are confined to Valley
county for our zones. The greatest chances for precipitation (10-
15%) will be afternoon and evening of Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will be near normal during this stretch. Beginning late
Saturday into Sunday, there is good consensus that upper-level
ridging will move in, bringing warmer temps (5-10 degrees above
normal) again.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR. Periods of lowered ceilings, especially in
precipitation, possible. Scattered showers to persist through the
morning into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
primarily along NV border and the west-central mountains, to develop
from 17z-01z Sunday. Thunderstorms may contain small hail and
graupel. Areas of mountain obscuration. Snow Levels: 6000-7500 ft.
Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kts possible from KMUO
through Western Magic Valley. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Showers possible (10-20% chance 12z-00z Sunday) at
terminal. Thunderstorms also possible (5-15% chance, greatest after
18z), but should remain north and south of terminal. Surface winds:
W-NW 5-15 kt gusting to 20 kts during the afternoon.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
