836
FXUS66 KOTX 141226
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
526 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot, dry, and strong winds leading to elevated to critical
fire weather conditions today.
- Strong cold front from the north Monday delivering windy
conditions. Brief damaging winds possible for the Okanogan
Valley, northern mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle.
- 30% chance for blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau and
Moses Lake area Monday evening.
- Much cooler temperatures Tuesday across Eastern Washington and
North Idaho with blustery northeast winds.
&&
.UPDATE...
The HREF model indicates breezy winds with higher gusts of 40+
mph on ridges across northeast Washington through the night. The
wind advisory for the Okanogan Highlands and Northeast Mountains
has been extended through Tuesday morning to account for this as
the abnormal northeast wind direction with potential for gusts
up around 40 mph will bring a continued risk for tree damage and
power outages. The Wind Advisory for these areas now match that
of north Idaho running out through 1100 AM Tuesday morning. The
pressure gradient relaxes substantially through the day Tuesday
with winds expected to follow suit. /SVH
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Big weather changes will occur late on Monday as a strong cold
front moves through the region from the north. The front will
deliver windy conditions from the north and northwest, and
critical fire weather conditions for much of Eastern Washington.
This system will also deliver rain showers to the Idaho
Panhandle, and a chance of showers over NE Washington. Tuesday
will be cooler with breezy northeast winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Monday: A potent July front will impact the Inland NW today.
There are many weather hazards that we are focusing on related
to strong winds. This includes: critical fire weather, tree
damage and power outages, blowing dust, choppy lakes, and
challenging travel conditions for high profile vehicles.
Residents of the Inland NW need to use extreme caution around
dry fuel beds as any new ignitions will have the potential to
spread rapidly.
Numerous weather highlights are in effect including red flag
warnings, high winds warnings, and wind advisories. Heat
advisories also remain in effect through Monday evening
signifying that conditons today will remain very warm and very
dry.
* Winds: Winds start off Monday morning increasing early in the day
from the East Slopes, across the Basin, and into North Idaho
from the west and southwest. Speeds will quickly be reaching
10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Around midday, northerly winds
will start to come down the Okanogan Valley and spread across
the mountains of northern WA through the afternoon. During
this time, winds also begin shifting toward more of a
northwesterly direction over the Cascades and into the Western
Basin. Speeds will continue to ramp up with speeds of 15-30
mph and stronger gusts. The most critical portion of the day
and winds will arrive late afternoon into the evening as
convection begins to fire in southern BC and rain cooled air
enhances the pressure gradient and northerly push. This is
when the potential for sustained winds of 30 mph or stronger
will arrive in Central WA and especially down the Okanogan
Valley where gust potential is from 50 to 60 mph. Similar
winds are expected to spill on to the Waterville Plateau. The
lower Idaho Panhandle and portions of extreme E WA may
experience a slight weakening of winds as the front is coming
in from the north but near or shortly after 7PM, a strong push
of northeast winds will enter North Idaho and surge southwest
into NE WA. This will also be reinforced by heavier rains
fall in far southwestern BC and could pack quite a punch with
gusts 40 mph or locally stronger. After midnight, the
combination of northern winds in Central WA and northeast
winds in North Idaho and E WA will begin to consolidate and
shift to all northeast winds going into Tuesday morning. All
things considered, there are high chances (50-100%) chances
for gusts of 40 mph or greater for most of our the northern
counties of Idaho and Washington and across Central WA from
Oroville to the Saddle Mountains. One area that is starting to
concern me based on the latest HREF probabilities is in North
Idaho and far NE WA where probabilities for gusts 45-55 mph
have increased. This includes the Purcell Trench, Priest Lake
Area, and Pend Oreille River Valley.
* Fire Weather Concerns: The combination of strong winds, hot
temperatures, and low humidity of 15 to 25 percent will create
critical fire weather conditions across a majority of the
Inland NW. If you are not in a red flag, it will still be
elevated and these areas were left out either due to winds not
being as strong or anticipation of rain late overnight (NE WA
and N ID). The surge of northerly winds will usher higher
humidity values overnight into Tuesday morning but fuels will
be slow to react and any new starts will have the potential to
spread rapidly. In a rare situation, the Okanogan Valley has
been bumped up to extreme fire weather conditions. There was
consideration for a PDS Red Flag (Particularly Dangerous
Situation) but confidence was not high enough to reach the 50+
mph gusts for 3 or more hours. Needless to say, it will be an
extremely challenging day for regional fire crews and please
do your part to keep ignitions from happening.
* Blowing Dust: Winds of this magnitude spreading south onto the Waterville
Plateau and around the Moses Lake area combined with very dry
soils is likely to kick up blowing dust. Given we are not in
planting season confidence in precise amounts and impacts
carries lower confidence but wind speeds support some degree
of dust impacts.
* Shower/Thunderstorm Potential: Several hundred joules of
surface based CAPE is forecast for North Idaho and into far
NE Washington Monday afternoon. The atmosphere may remain too
mixed in the afternoon for cells to mature into thunderstorms
noted by the HRRR and HRRR soundings but going into the
evening and overnight periods, it looks more favorable for
showers and t-storms to develop as the core of the upper low
comes through. SPC currently has NE WA and N ID in a general
thunder threat. Any lightning is a concern this time of year
for new fire starts. Cells that develop should start producing
wetting rains which is good news but prior to that, there is
a risk for gusty outflow winds as DCAPEs start off around 800
J/kg.
* Heat: The heat advisory is in place through Monday for much of
the Basin, Spokane Area, and into the lower Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler but still nearing
the century mark around Lewiston and into the Snake River
Valley. Heat advisories will end at 8 PM.
* : If you are camping, heading into the woods, or on lakes
please take these winds seriously and use caution where you
are setting up tents. Consider if there are weakened trees
nearby that could come down. Lakes are going to become very
choppy with wind waves, especially in the evening. Plan
accordingly for your safety.
Tuesday: For Tuesday, the region will be in a moderate northeast
to southwest pressure gradient with blustery northeast winds.
Temperatures will be cooler (70s to 80s) with relatively higher
humidity values (20-30%) but still dry enough to have concern
for fire weather. Any new fires will be wind driven and pushed
to the southwest. Winds on Tuesday will remain in the 15 to 20
mph range with gusts around 30-35 mph.
Wednesday - Sunday: Wednesday and Thursday will deliver less impacts
as the system moves off to the east and weak high pressure
begins to build on to the coast. Ensembles are starting to come
into better agreement for another trough Sunday into Monday as
high pressure blossoms upstream into the Gulf of AK. Several of
the deterministic models are quite deep with the system next
week and has the potential to bring periods of windy conditions
as well as showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence for
temperatures to warm Wednesday and Thursday then spread is 10+
degrees in temps thereafter with uncertainty of the next trof
depth and location. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A potent low pressure disturbance pushing across
British Columbia will ramp up winds across the Inland Northwest
today. Winds will increase from the west through the morning
into the this afternoon with gusts up into the 25-35 kt range.
Stronger winds will be felt across the exposed areas of the
basin including at all TAF sites (KEAT-KMWH-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-
KPUW-KLWS). The cold front passage will be through the evening
with a wind shift from westerly to northerly. Convection and
precipitation along the front will enhance the northerly winds.
Strong winds will first be felt down the Okanogan Valley where
gusts of 45-55 kts are expected and these northerly winds will
funnel out from KOMK across KEAT-KEPH-KMWH through this
afternoon between 20-03Z. A bursts of stronger north to
northeast winds will also funnel down the Purcell Trench
occurring after 03Z between Bonners Ferry to KSZT-KDEW-KCOE and
out across the Spokane Area (KSFF/KGEG). North to northeast
winds will gusts in the 30-40 kt range late in the evening and
remain gusty overnight. Higher gusts will likely come with
convection that will be concentrated over the mountains of
northeast Washington into the northern Idaho Panhandle.
Thunderstorms will bring the potential for infrequent cloud to
ground lightning, brief heavy rain and erratic wind directions.
Blowing dust will be a concern for KEPH to KMWH with the strong
north winds late in the afternoon into the early evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through 00z.
Low confidence on how smoke/haze will impact smaller airports
from Omak (KOMK) to Colville (KCQV) to Sandpoint (KSZT) early
Monday morning as smoke could be trapped in the morning
inversions. Confidence is low to moderate for timing of showers
and thunderstorms in north Idaho. Cells could begin to produce
heavier downpours around Bonners Ferry to Sandpoint Monday
evening with 20% for brief MVFR conditions. There is also low
confidence for impacts from blowing dust around KOMK to
KEPH/KMWH late this afternoon into the early evening. /SVH
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane 93 58 77 54 85 58 / 0 20 20 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 92 58 74 52 85 57 / 0 40 30 0 0 0
Pullman 90 54 77 50 83 54 / 0 10 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 101 67 87 60 92 64 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
Colville 91 46 76 42 85 49 / 10 60 30 0 0 0
Sandpoint 88 54 70 47 81 51 / 10 70 40 0 0 0
Kellogg 89 59 70 53 82 60 / 0 40 40 10 0 0
Moses Lake 96 64 84 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 92 65 86 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 94 61 87 57 91 61 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper
Columbia Basin.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern
Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower
Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-
Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday
for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Okanogan Valley.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Waterville Plateau.
ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Lewiston Area.
&&
$$
