Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning.
Forecast discussion
270
FXUS66 KOTX 231120
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm Memorial Day Weekend with a minor HeatRisk. Temperatures
warming into the 80s Sunday. Water temperatures remain cold.
- Widely scattered showers with a 10-30 percent chance of
thunderstorms Sunday night into Memorial Day.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will gradually warm through Sunday as high
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s for the weekend. There
is growing potential for showers and thunderstorms from Sunday
night into Memorial Day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday: Weather will trend warmer and drier for
this weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific
Northwest in response to a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska
digging off the west coast. For Friday, residual moisture from
yesterday`s showers combined with weak ascent from a passing
weak vort lobe will support scattered afternoon showers
primarily across the northern mountains and the Idaho Panhandle.
Models are in good agreement for the upper level ridge to
strengthen over the Inland Northwest Saturday and Sunday as a
slow moving cold front and upper level trough near the west
coast. There is high confidence for temperatures to warm into
the mid 70s to low 70s on Saturday, then for widespread highs in
the 80s on Sunday. These temperatures will be 12 to 17 degrees
above average for this time of year and result in a minor risk
for heat related illnesses for individuals extremely sensitive
to heat. Those planning to spend the holiday weekend out on the
lake or river should prepare for very cold water temperatures.
Please wear a life jacket if heading out on the water.
Sunday night into Monday: A breakdown of the upper level ridge
looks to take place Sunday night into Monday. Deep southerly
flow ahead of the cold front will bring anomalous moisture into
the Inland Northwest with PWATs 150-200 percent of normal.
Following the very warm day on Sunday, we will need to monitor
this period for thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday morning
across central Washington and then into eastern Washington and
north Idaho by the late morning and afternoon. High temperatures
on Monday are currently forecasted to cool by about 10 degrees
compared to Sunday. In addition to the thunderstorm potential,
breezy west to southwest winds will accompany the cool down.
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are
not strong enough to result in widespread impacts, but are
enough to result in choppy conditions over area lakes. Those
heading out on the water for the holiday should be prepared for
these conditions.
Tuesday through Thursday: Models are in general agreement for
the upper level ridge to rebuild over the Inland Northwest with
temperatures trending into the 80s and low 90s by Wednesday.
Confidence in the forecast wanes for Thursday as 50 percent of
the global ensembles show an upper level trough breaking down
the ridge. This scenario would bring cooler temperatures along
with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The other 50
percent of global ensembles keep the ridge in place with a
warmer and drier forecast. /vmt
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak upper system pushes by today, with isolated
showers around the mountains but the TAF sites are forecast to
remain dry. Recent rain and lower level moisture may produce
some patchy fog in the vicinity of GEG/SFF/COE/PUW this
morning, but confidence is too low to include in a TAF.
Otherwise look for partly to mostly cloudy skies.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: This carries a
very low confidence, but residual boundary layer moisture
combined with clearing may allow for patchy fog to develop over
the ID Panhandle valleys and near SFF/GEG/COE/PUW.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane 68 44 75 49 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 68 44 76 48 83 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
Pullman 66 43 73 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 74 49 80 53 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Colville 70 40 76 42 83 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 30
Sandpoint 67 44 75 47 83 51 / 20 0 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 64 47 73 51 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
Moses Lake 76 47 81 50 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 50
Wenatchee 75 51 80 56 87 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 50
Omak 75 47 80 49 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
Nearest avalanche forecast regions
St. Regis & Silver Valley
9mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
St. Regis & Silver Valley
9mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Kootenai
56mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Selkirks & Cabinets
62mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Selkirks & Cabinets
62mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Swan Range
94mi away by Flathead Avalanche Center
No data reported
Rattlesnake
95mi away by West Central Montana Avalanche Center
No data reported
Whitefish Range
96mi away by Flathead Avalanche Center
No data reported
Seeley Lake
106mi away by West Central Montana Avalanche Center
