189
FXUS65 KSLC 252203
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A cold Pacific storm system will begin pushing into
northern Utah on Sunday, bringing high elevation snowfall and
valley rain through Monday. High pressure builds in the wake of
the storm system early in the week, bringing stable conditions
throughout the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...A storm system will begin
pushing into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next
24-36 hours, bringing winter weather impacts across the high
terrain in northern Utah and rainfall for valley areas.
Key Messages and Impacts:
- High elevation snowfall is expected across northern Utah
mountains from I-80 northward with the greatest amounts being
favored in the Bear River Mountains and the Western Uinta
Mountains. Total accumulations will range from 3-6 inches for
elevations from 6000-8000ft, with upwards of 6-12 inches for
elevations above 8000ft. Anticipate accumulations of snow on
seasonal roads that remain open.
- Breezy west to southwest winds are expected across northern Utah
early Sunday morning, southern and central Utah on Sunday
afternoon, and from early Sunday through Monday across
southwest Wyoming.
Moisture already spreading over Utah and southwest Wyoming this
afternoon and evening has only resulted in an increase in upper
level cloud cover, however, radar trends have noted an area of
precipitation working into southern Idaho, likely tied to the nose
of the lower level moisture. Numerical weather guidance is
supportive of this lower level moisture continuing to work into
northern Utah through this evening and overnight hours, pairing
with a shortwave disturbance to kick off some initial high
elevation snowfall and valley rain in northern Utah. Significant
accumulations of snowfall are not anticipated with this initial
wave as snow levels will still be quite high.
Through the morning on Sunday, the cold front associated with this
storm will sag into northern Utah during the morning hours on
Sunday which will help to act as a forcing mechanism to provide
increasing coverage of precipitation. Through the late morning and
afternoon, a more robust wave will push through the region and
help to intensify precipitation, kicking off the period of
heaviest precipitation as it pairs with upper level dynamics. This
period of favorable moisture and atmospheric lift is expected to
persist through at least Sunday evening, if not longer into Monday
morning, especially across the northern third of Utah and
southwest Wyoming. The biggest uncertainty here is how far south
the favorable dynamics extend into northern Utah, and whether or
not the central Wasatch/ western Uinta Mountains will come into
play for impactful high elevation snowfall. For the Bear River
Mountains, where impacts are expected to be the highest,
accumulations range from just a couple of inches on the low end of
the forecast (25th percentile) to upwards of 8-12 inches on the
higher end (75th to 90th percentile). In these moist west to
northwesterly flow regimes, the Bear River Mountains tend to lean
toward the higher end of precipitation amounts, so would
anticipate reaching anywhere from 6-12 inches depending on
elevation. For seasonal roads that remain open (i.e. Monte
Cristo), this could pose a significant impact to travel. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern Utah
mountains north of I-80 for this reason, with a focus on the Logan
Canyon summit (US-89) and Monte Cristo (SR-39).
Though the best snow accumulations will be favored in Utah`s Bear
River Mountains, the central Wasatch (i.e. upper Cottonwoods) will
still fare well with this storm as accumulations are likely to
range from 2-6 inches. As such, seasonal roads like Guardsman
Pass may still see impactful snow accumulations and anyone
traveling these roads should be prepared for accumulating snow.
By Monday afternoon, the moisture will depart the region with
stable conditions build quickly in the wake as a ridge works
into the region. In the wake of the cold front, below-normal
temperatures will be seen across a majority of the forecast area
for Monday, with cold overnight temperatures expected into Tuesday
morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...After a cold Tuesday morning
with lows near to below freezing across all but far southern valleys
(i.e. St. George, Capitol Reef), building high pressure will produce
a stout warming trend across the area. Although 700-mb temperatures
will increase by around 6-12 degrees statewide between Monday and
Wednesday, valley high temperatures could be a bit limited in this
sense given strong subsidence and limited mixing thanks to our late
October sun angle. By Wednesday however, temperatures should rebound
to near normal...or perhaps a smidge above normal across southern
Utah.
While most model guidance has moved away from a late Wednesday/early
Thursday shortwave trough passing across northern Utah, we could
still see a weak dry cold front or two graze our area later in the
week as the ridge likely weakens. Still, a small minority of
ensemble members favor a stronger ridge which would inhibit these
shortwaves. By Friday, uncertainty increases in the longwave
pattern. While most guidance keeps our area dry, there are around
20% of ensemble members that favor zonal, slightly anticyclonic flow
that actually could advect some weak AR moisture along the OR-CA
border and eventually into northern Utah. This is highly dependent
on the synoptic flow, though, as most guidance still favors a weak
ridge over the western US.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Mid level clouds increase ahead of an
approaching trough, but conditions will stay dry overnight with some
mountain showers developing. Southerly winds will weaken slightly
overnight with a switch to light northerlies behind a surface front
~10Z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for most of the airspace through the period. A trough will bring
increasing mid level clouds across the northern airspace with some
light mountain showers forming by early morning. Winds ahead of the
front will remain gusty out of the south with a switch to light
northerlies behind the surface front early in the morning across the
north. Most terminals will remain dry overnight and through the
early portion of Sunday.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon MDT Monday for
UTZ110.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Webber
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Mahan
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
