867
FXUS65 KLKN 111959
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1259 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warming temperature trend with breezy to windy conditions will
continue through next week.
* Near record high temperatures across the region into next week.
* A weak weather system clips over northern Nevada this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure ridging continues to
strengthen over the southern Pacific Coast while a strong low
pressure trough over the Great Lakes will keep the upper ridge
from moving northward. Despite the position of the low pressure
trough keeping a northwesterly flow overhead, the position of the
upper ridge is pushing the cooler air and moisture over the
Pacific Northwest and pushing in the dry, warmer weather over
Nevada. Warming temperature trend is expected to continue today
and into the next week with near record temperatures expected each
day. Recent model runs are showing a tightening of the weather
gradients which has increased expected wind speeds tomorrow and
over the weekend, with Thursday westerly winds reaching up to
20-30 mph, gusts as high as 45 mph over Elko County. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for much of Elko County Thursday. Rest of
the region is expected to see westerly winds up to 15-25 mph,
gusts as high as 35 mph. Friday, breezy westerly winds up to 10-15
mph, gusts as high as 20-30 mph.
The next potential for weather is expected on Saturday as a small
weak trough will clip across northern Nevada. This clipper is
increasing the potential for rain with a 30-45% chance, however
very little moisture is expected with areas seeing only up to 0.01
inches of rain. This small trough will tighten the weather
gradients even further, giving a potential for another Wind
Advisory as westerly winds are expected to increase with speeds
up to 25-35 mph, gusts as high as 40-50 mph across northern Nevada
and parts of central Nevada. There is a potential that the winds
may be stronger, with a probability of 35-40% that wind gusts
across northern Nevada along I-80 corridor may reach above 50 mph,
which will warrant a High Wind Warning.
Sunday, and into next week, winds will be much calmer as the high
pressure over the Pacific will push east into the southwest,
giving a strong ridging over the area. Warming temperatures will
continue with up to an 80-90% chance highs break into new records
through the week, both daily and for the month of March.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of warming
temperature trends into next week with near record temperatures.
High confidence of strong gusty winds across northeastern Nevada
tomorrow. Moderate to high confidence of a small weather system
impacting northern Nevada Saturday with strong winds. Moderate
confidence for potential of High Wind Warning Saturday. Adjusted
the wind grids to NBM 90th percentile to better reflect recent
wind events.
&&
.AVIATION...
Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour
period. Some breezy westerly winds at 8-12 kts with the exception
of KTPH at 10-15 kts, gusts as high as 20-24 kts, then becoming
lighter this evening. Few cloud conditions across the northern
terminals at FL200-FL250, otherwise clearing out this afternoon.
Tomorrow, stronger westerly winds expected across all terminals
as the weather gradients tighten around 17z. Northern terminals
may see up to 20-30 kts with gusts as high as 35-45 kts while
central terminals can see up to 15-25 kts, gusts as high as 25-35
kts. Wind Advisory has been issued for Elko County tomorrow.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ031-033-034-039.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
