140
FXUS65 KBOI 250817
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
217 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...An upper level low
will move onto the coast of northern CA today, then move east
across NV Saturday into Sunday. Moisture advection and upper
level diffluence will increase and then remain high through the
weekend. Instability will increase over most of the area,
bringing with it a slight chance of thunderstorms. CAPE values
up to 600 J/kg will develop today - initially in the south but
then spreading to most areas this evening. Saturday, the best
instability will be over the north and west. As the upper low
moves east into Utah Sunday, the best instability will shift
east with it. Thunderstorms may contain small hail, and will
have the potential for wind gusts to 50 mph today, and 45 mph
Saturday and Sunday. Brief torrential rainfall is also possible.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal today and
Saturday, cooling to near normal Sunday. Aside from wind gusts
associated with strong showers and thunderstorms, easterly wind
gusts to 25 mph are likely in/near the western Magic Valley and
Camas Prairie today. Sunday, northwest winds will gust 25 to 40
mph in eastern Oregon, and 15 to 30 mph over most of SW Idaho,
as a cold front moves through.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Ridging aloft will build in
as the upper low moves farther away to the SE Monday, bringing
dry and seasonable weather. A shortwave trough will move in
quickly Tuesday, bringing a 20-60% chance of showers (highest
in the north). Yet another ridge is favored Wednesday and
Thursday, so we should be dry and temps will warm up to a few
degrees above normal Wednesday and as much as 10 degrees above
normal Thursday. Although model confidence decreases by day 7 as
usual, ensembles favor a trough forming to our west Thursday
into Friday, putting our area in warm SW flow aloft and likely
increasing moisture at mid and high levels. Therefore, we have
introduced a chance of showers Friday. Temps are forecast to be
10-15 degrees above normal (near 80 in lower elevations) Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR with sct-bkn mid and high level clouds this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon
with areas of MVFR and mountains obscured. Surface Winds:
variable 5-10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft: SE 10-20 kt.
KBOI...VFR. SE 5-10 kt, becoming 10-15 kt after 15Z, and
gusting to 20 kt after 20Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK... VFR. Showers and a slight chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms may
result in areas of MVFR, mountain obscuration, and produce gusty
outflows. Surface winds increasing by Sunday, with gusts 30-40
kt Sunday afternoon near KBKE, up to 25 kt elsewhere.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP
