Increasing clouds, with a low around 38. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph.
Forecast discussion
823
FXUS66 KOTX 212238
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
338 PM PDT Wed May 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly cloudy with showers across the region on Thursday
- Warm Memorial Day Weekend with a minor heat risk.
Temperatures warming into the 80s Sunday into Memorial Day.
Water temperatures remain cold.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will spread widely scattered showers over
the Inland Northwest on Thursday. Pockets of moderate to heavy
rain possible with showers over southeast Washington into the
Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures see a gradual warming trend into
the holiday weekend and will become warm by Sunday into Memorial
Day with temperatures climbing into the 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday Night: A mid level dry slot over
central and southern WA this afternoon will rotate northeast
this evening allowing showers over the northern mountains to
quickly come to an end during the early evening. Meanwhile, Low
Level Water Vapor Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a well
defined low off the southern Oregon coast tracking east.
Ensembles have come into better agreement of this low weakening
into an open wave with mainly light precipitation tracking
across the region on Thursday. Pockets of mid level and weak
surface based instability will lead to locally moderate rain
rates producing a tenth to quarter inch of rain, with most areas
receiving less than a tenth of an inch. Late Thursday afternoon
into the evening there is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms over
the ID Panhandle as late afternoon sun breaks allow for SB CAPE
of 200-400 J/KG to develop. Currently, the CAM`s models show
the best potential for thunderstorms south and east of the area
over Central ID into NW Montana. As the wave exits Thursday
Night and the lower atmosphere stabilizes showers will come to
an end. JW
Friday through Wednesday: A strengthening ridge along the coast
will keep the region mainly under dry, warming conditions for
the period. A Low in the Gulf of Alaska will occasionally push
weak waves of light moisture through the Inland Northwest. For
now timing of the these waves is Friday afternoon and Monday.
Showers will mainly be over the mountains with an occasional
lightning strike possible. Outside of that, it is expected to be
a quiet period. Temperatures will steadily rise from 60 and low
70s on Friday to upper 70s and low 90s by Sunday. The pattern
is expected to last through much of next week as ensembles
trends are allow the ridge to linger in the area. JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Mid level warming and drying will lead to a quick
decrease in intensity and coverage of showers over the northern
mountains through 03z this evening. Overnight clouds thicken
with an approaching system, with an increase in rain showers
after 14z Thursday. With the showers CIGS will lower, although
conditions are expected to remain VFR at the TAF sites.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions through tonight. As rain showers move in
Thursday, the HREF is showing a 10-20% chance of MVFR CIGS
18z-23z for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, and a 40% chance for KPUW during
this same time interval. JW
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane 45 60 42 66 44 72 / 0 50 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 42 60 42 65 42 72 / 10 50 20 20 0 0
Pullman 45 58 40 64 41 71 / 20 60 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 50 66 47 70 46 76 / 20 60 10 10 0 0
Colville 37 63 37 67 42 74 / 10 40 10 20 10 0
Sandpoint 42 62 43 65 41 71 / 10 50 30 30 10 10
Kellogg 45 59 45 62 42 70 / 10 60 40 30 0 10
Moses Lake 50 70 44 73 46 79 / 10 30 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 52 70 47 72 47 77 / 10 30 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 70 43 72 45 76 / 0 20 0 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
Nearest avalanche forecast regions
St. Regis & Silver Valley
29mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
St. Regis & Silver Valley
29mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Kootenai
89mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Selkirks & Cabinets
92mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Selkirks & Cabinets
92mi away by Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
No data reported
Rattlesnake
94mi away by West Central Montana Avalanche Center
No data reported
Bitterroot
95mi away by West Central Montana Avalanche Center
No data reported
Seeley Lake
111mi away by West Central Montana Avalanche Center
