448
FXUS65 KSLC 242125
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
325 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A weak system passes through the region today and
Wednesday, resulting in increased winds across eastern portions of
Utah. Otherwise, a gradual warming and drying trend is expected
through the remainder of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6 AM Thursday)...Mid-level water vapor
satellite imagery from this afternoon depicts our area nestled
between a shortwave trough centered over southern CA/NV and a
broad ridge extending across the US east of the Rockies. Current
radar imagery shows high-based showers developing along a line
generally extending from Wendover to the Cache Valley, courtesy of
increased instability under the aforementioned trough. These
showers are not expected to produce much in the way of
precipitation as low-levels remain very dry, but will be capable
of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds as these isolated cells
track northeastward along the line through late this afternoon.
Otherwise, conditions remain dry across the remainder of Utah and
southwest Wyoming with temperatures near seasonal averages.
The aforementioned trough has also resulted in increased
southwesterly winds across eastern portions of central and
southern Utah this afternoon, with some areas of near- critical
to locally critical conditions expected through the afternoon
hours.
The trough is expected to lift northeastward into Wednesday, which
will result in chances for isolated shower activity mainly across
the Uinta Mountains and Uinta Basin during the afternoon hours.
These cells will once again be capable of producing gusty outflow
winds, with gusts to 30-40 mph possible. This system is not
expected bring any relief to the dry and warm conditions, with
high temperatures trending a few degrees warmer across the region
and daytime RH values dropping further in most locations other
than far northeast Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday), Issued 332 AM MDT...
High confidence in hot and dry conditions prevailing across the
forecast area through the upcoming weekend, as ensemble families
are in strong agreement slowly building mid level ridging into the
Desert Southwest, while the primary belt of westerlies shifts
northward into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region. This
leaves the forecast area within a predominant zonal flow through
the weekend with afternoon max temps running a few degrees above
normal. Northern Utah will see little variation in max temps
Thursday-Sunday, while temps trend slightly warmer each day across
southern Utah under the influence of the Desert Southwest ridge.
By early next week ensemble guidance is in strong agreement
developing a weak trough along the Pacific Coast, which will amplify
the mid level ridge downstream across the Interior West. This will
result in a warming trend heading into Monday across the forecast
area, with the Wasatch Front approaching 100F and St George
exceeding 105F. As this trough evolves along the coast, the pattern
looks potentially favorable to pull monsoon moisture northward into
at least southern portions of the forecast area as early as Tuesday,
as all ensemble clusters dig this trough far enough south to
develop a southerly fetch into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Enhanced northwesterly flow is expected to
continue out of the northwest through around 06z before
southeasterly drainage flow resumes. Tomorrow is expected to be
quite similar with enhanced northwesterlies resuming around 17-19z
with VFR conditions at the terminal.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty winds out of the west-
southwest will occur at the majority of our sites with KEVW and
our southern UT sites experiencing gusts around 20kts this
afternoon. In the evening, winds will taper off and become
variable across all sites following 04-06z. There is a nonzero
chance that isolated high-based storms develop near the UT-ID
border north of KLGU this afternoon and while storms aren`t
expected to occur near the terminal, gusty outflow could make it
south resulting in a brief period of stronger gusts at the site.
This threat is low and should be gone by 00z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Enhanced southwesterly winds to 25-30 mph across
eastern portions of southern and central Utah, in conjunction with
very low daytime RH values, will result in a period of elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon where
fuels are critical.
The gradual warming trend is expected to continue through the
remainder of the week as high pressure remains the dominant
feature across the western US. The airmass, while already dry,
will continue to further dry through at least Friday, with
worsening overnight humidity recoveries and daytime RH values
dropping into the single digits to low teens across a majority of
the region mid-to-late week. Despite the dry airmass, increased
daytime heating may lead to the development of some high-based
showers or thunderstorms across the Uinta Mountains and Uinta
Basin on Wednesday, with potential to produce gusty and erratic
outflow winds. A weak disturbance late week is expected to yield
southwesterly flow across southern Utah on Friday, and to a
lesser extent on Saturday. This may result in another afternoon or
two of near critical to critical fire weather conditions for
portions of southern Utah where fuels are critical. Looking
ahead, better chances for thunderstorms develop by early next
week, though remains low confidence at this time.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Whitlam/Seaman/Worster
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