346
FXUS65 KBYZ 231958
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
158 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few storms possible for southeast MT overnight tonight.
- Chance for strong to severe storms developing into Tuesday
evening in SE Montana and NE Wyoming.
- Low to moderate chances of precipitation continue each day
through this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Now through Tuesday night...
After a record cold Monday morning, temperatures will rebound to
more summer like values Tuesday. Additionally, there is a chance
for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially Tuesday
evening.
As a weak vort max moves through Montana this afternoon and
evening some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move across the CWA. Lightning will be the main
threat with these showers. Overnight tonight as this energy meets
up with the main jet, these showers should increase in coverage
as they move into eastern Montana. Much of Carter Co. has a 50%
POP just after midnight tonight before these showers move east.
Tuesday the high temperatures return to average with Billings
forecast to be just shy of 80F. With the return of the warmth
comes the return of severe weather potential. ML-CAPE values are
forecast to be over 1500 J/Kg in far SE Montana Tuesday afternoon
ahead of a shortwave moving ENE across Wyoming. While the more
favorable sheer will be situated farther southeast, decent
theata-e values are forecast across much of the area. Any severe
storm that does develop will likely be quite isolated in our CWA
but would be capable of all severe hazards. Locations near to Billings
are not under any severe threat,
WMR
Wednesday through Monday...
Unsettled, but generally benign weather will continue into the
weekend with progressive northwesterly to southwesterly flow
aloft. While areas around and west of Billings will remain mostly
dry on Wednesday, a departing upper wave, and around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE, will keep the chance of precipitation over eastern Montana
through the day (30 to 50 percent chance). While there is a chance
of precipitation over the western mountains on Thursday (20 to 35
percent), temperatures warming into the 80s to 90 degrees F over
the plains will limit how much precipitation actually makes it off
the higher terrain. Late Friday through Saturday, another low
amplitude upper level trough looks to move through the region.
With this, more widespread chances of precipitation, 30 to 55
percent, and slightly cooler temperatures, highs in the 70s and
80s, look to return to the region. Sunday into Monday, an upper
level ridge looks to build west of the continental divide. With
this, northwesterly flow aloft looks to keep a low chance of
precipitation over the region both days (10 to 30 percent chance).
With all that said, atmospheric moisture looks to remain around
to slightly above normal through this period. Therefore,
thunderstorms are possible with each passing wave, so continue to
stay weather aware if recreating outdoors during this time. Arends
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail into Tuesday under passing mid to
high clouds. While isolated convection is possible during the mid
afternoon and evening today, confidence is low on any impacts to
the TAF sites. Late tonight into early Tuesday morning, a low-
level jet looks to increase over eastern Montana. This will bring
isolated convection to far south-eastern Montana and potentially
some low- level wind shear to areas around KMLS, KBHK, and K97M
(wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots around 1,000 feet off the ground).
Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/078 055/083 057/089 057/083 058/081 056/082 058/089
30/B 31/U 01/U 11/B 34/T 21/U 00/U
LVM 039/075 044/082 050/084 050/082 050/080 049/083 051/088
22/T 12/T 02/T 23/T 34/T 21/U 01/U
HDN 046/080 054/083 052/090 055/085 057/082 054/082 056/090
02/T 52/T 11/U 11/B 43/T 31/U 10/U
MLS 050/083 058/082 057/092 060/087 060/084 057/083 058/089
12/T 64/T 11/U 21/B 34/T 31/U 10/U
4BQ 051/080 057/078 057/089 060/087 060/083 057/080 057/086
36/T 73/T 20/U 10/U 22/T 42/T 11/U
BHK 048/078 055/074 052/085 058/086 056/081 054/079 054/084
23/T 76/T 21/U 21/U 23/T 41/U 10/U
SHR 045/078 048/079 049/087 053/085 053/081 051/079 053/085
15/T 62/T 11/U 11/B 13/T 33/T 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
