588
FXUS65 KLKN 130838
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
138 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warming temperature trend with breezy to windy conditions will
continue through next week.
* Near record high temperatures across the region into next week.
* A weak weather system clips over northern Nevada this weekend.
* Strong gusty winds Saturday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Forecasts of high winds Saturday and warmer temperatures next week
is still on track. No changes to forecast or grids is needed at
this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northwesterly flow over Nevada will
continue into the weekend as a long wave trough over the Great
Lakes extending into the northwest keeps an upper ridge across
the eastern Pacific. These systems are tightening the weather
gradients overhead which is producing breezy to windy conditions
over the region.
Friday, warmer temperatures persist with highs in the 60s to 70s,
however winds are expected to be lighter from the west with
speeds up to 10-15 mph across northern Nevada, gusts as high as
20-25 mph.
Saturday, models are showing the high pressure ridge over the
Pacific to weaken, allowing a weak weather system to clip northern
Nevada. Chances for precipitation increase up to 45-60% along the
northern state border, amounts remain low at this time with areas
seeing only up to 0.01 inches of rain. The main concern with this
weather system is the tightening of weather gradients that will
produce strong northwesterly winds across the region. Across central
Nevada and Humboldt County further from the tighter pressure
gradient, winds will increase to 20-30 mph with gusts as high as
45 mph prompting a Wind Advisory. Across northeastern Elko County,
the pressure gradient is forecast to be much stronger as low
pressure undergoes rapid intensification across Wyoming and into
western Nebraska. Thus, winds will be stronger here, especially
along passes and summits on I-80 and US 93 in Elko County up to
25-35 mph, with a 50-60% chance of seeing wind gusts up to 60 mph.
High Wind Watch has been issued for most of northern and eastern
Elko County.
Sunday and into next week, the weak upper trough will push east
with the high pressure ridge over the Pacific strengthening and
moving across the western CONUS, leaving dry and calm weather
conditions over Nevada. With the system moving in, it will also
brings in unseasonably warm temperatures with 80-90% chance high
temperatures will break into new records through the week, both
daily and for the month of March. Models show the high pressure
ridge is expected to last into next Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of a weak
weather system Saturday, producing strong gusty winds, prompting a
Wind Advisory and High Wind Watch. High confidence of warming
temperature trends into next week with near record temperatures.
Adjust wind grids in NBM 90th percentile to better reflect recent
wind events.
&&
.AVIATION...
Dry with VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hours. Breezy conditions Friday afternoon at KWMC and KEKO
with SW winds around 15kts gusting to 25kts.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ030-035>038-040.
High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
NVZ031-033-034-039.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...96
