735
FXUS65 KSLC 231024
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
424 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A general southwesterly flow will bring a warming
trend through the upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...A general southwesterly
flow will reside across the forecast area today, downstream from
an upper low becoming situated along the central CA coast. The
frontal boundary which pushed south of the forecast area Sunday
will mix/retreat northward through the day, eventually extending
roughly along a Vernal to Milford line this this afternoon. To the
north of this boundary, a more stable airmass will remain
situated across northern and central Utah while the airmass to the
south will remain better mixed with southwesterly winds surfacing
this afternoon. As the airmass modifies across the north of the
boundary, temperatures will trend 10-15 degrees warmer from
Sundays anomalously cool temperatures, but remain roughly 10F
below climo. To the south of the boundary, which remained on the
mild side Sunday, temperatures will trend 3-6 degrees warmer
today.
The CA low will eject through NV during the day Tuesday, enhancing
southwesterly flow a bit across the forecast area, particularly
across southern and eastern Utah to the south of the remnant
surface boundary. This boundary may serve as a focus for isolated
high based convection Tuesday afternoon, most likely where the
convergence zone intersects the terrain of northern/central Utah
back into east central NV. Otherwise max temperatures will trend
a little warmer Tuesday, particularly across northern Utah as the
airmass continues to modify.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Hot and dry conditions
will be the main story for the long-term period, with high
temperatures in the 90s expected across most valleys from Thursday
onward. Wednesday will likely be the "coolest" of the long-term
thanks to a weak trough crossing the state, though temperatures
will still be quite a bit warmer than prior days as warm air
returns. Despite a fairly dry air mass, a few mountain
showers/thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out on Wednesday
afternoon.
The upper-level pattern becomes more zonal after Wednesday, with
positive height anomalies building into the area for Thursday and
beyond. While prior model guidance favored a grazing trough in the
Friday-Saturday timeframe, more recent model runs (now 90% of
ensemble members) suggest this trough takes a path further north
across Idaho. Although this feature looks less impressive now, we
may still see a slight increase in southwesterly winds,
particularly on Friday. Otherwise, expect hot and dry conditions
to continue through at least the weekend. Next week, forecast
confidence decreases, with the potential for another longwave
trough developing perhaps sometime mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Light and variable winds will continue through
at least 15z, becoming northwesterly around 6-10kts after 16z.
VFR conditions will prevail with scattered mid to high clouds
through the valid TAF period.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light and terrain-driven
winds will persist through the morning, becoming stronger out of
the south across the southern third of Utah after ~18z. VFR
conditions will prevail across most locations, the exception being
portions of the southern Utah that may see VIS reductions due to
wildfire smoke. KBCE in particular will likely experience MVFR VIS
with even a low chance of IFR VIS through roughly 15-16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A warming trend will commence today as a general
southwesterly flow develops across the region. The airmass will
remain fairly stable across northern and western Utah this
afternoon, while southern and eastern Utah will experience better
mixing, which will allow this southwesterly flow to surface at
times, resulting in gusty afternoon winds. This combined with very
low RH will result in elevated fire weather conditions at times
mainly east of Highway 89.
A weak weather system will brush by the region Tuesday which will
increase southwesterly winds across southern and eastern Utah.
With the airmass remaining very dry, this increase in winds may
bring areas of near critical to critical fire weather conditions
east of Highway 89. This system may also bring a few high based
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two over the terrain of
northern far northern and far western Utah Tuesday afternoon.
For the middle to latter half of the week, the warming trend will
continue allowing temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday.
Meanwhile the airmass will trend drier, resulting in very low
daytime RH each afternoon across all zones. For areas south of
I-80, overnight RH recovery will become poor, and in many cases
non-existent, beginning Wednesday night and continuing through the
remainder of the week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Seaman
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Seaman
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
