Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Forecast discussion
178
FXUS65 KTFX 311109
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
409 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be warmer and dry through the New Year`s Day
- Mostly light mountain snow returns Thursday evening, with daily
chances of light mountain snow through the beginning of next
week.
- Windy condtions return to the Rocky Mountain Front this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1155 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front will be peaking over he next
hour. After that, the pressure gradient decreasing along the Rocky
Mountain Front overnight will decrease winds. Though, winds will
still remain relatively breezy through the work week. An upper-level
ridge will keeps things dry through the day Thursday with above
average temperatures for most of the region. A backdoor cold
front swinging through the Hi-line Wednesday and Thursday will
keep temperatures closer to average up there.
Thursday evening and Friday, the upper level ridge begins to
break down as a trough builds along the West coast. A shortwave
will bring light mountain snow to Southwest MT Thursday evening
through Friday, slowly lifting north throughout the timeframe.
With the troughing being the dominant pattern through the
beginning of next week, a few waves of light mountain snow and
low end chances for precipitation at lower elevations. The ridge
breakdown will also bring in better upper-level flow and bring
back windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain front with breezy
winds across the rest of the region. Above normal temperatures
will continue into the beginning of next week as well.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Although this is a lower confident scenario (<20% chance),
forecast soundings indicate the slight possibility of there being
enough low level moisture for patchy freezing drizzle overnight
Thursday into Friday morning along the Hi-line/backdoor cold
front. However, models aren`t that confident in precipitation
developing that far north yet, and there is a good chance it
remains a low cloud deck instead.
There seems to be good model agreement that the snow will be light
in the mountains through the weekend. There`s a 10-30% chance for 2"
of snow each day Friday through Monday. The best chances for any
precipitation to move off of the mountains will be into the
Southwest MT Valleys. Even then, there is only a less than 40%
chance for 0.05" of precipitation through Monday.
For winds this weekend, ensembles don`t seem the most excited
about the winds. There is a 20-50% chance for 58 mph winds along
the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday
and Sunday, with a 20-50% chance for 35 mph winds elsewhere.
-Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAF Period
Broken mid- to upper level cloudiness will persist in lee of the
Continental Divide across Central and North Central Montana
through 03-06z Thursday as a Chinook Arch remains nearly
stationary. Mountain wave turbulence is expected near this
feature, especially west of the US Hwy 89 corridor. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected across all terminals, but low clouds will
begin to move southeast towards the KHVR terminal near 12z
Thursday. - Moldan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 29 45 31 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 45 22 40 23 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 42 24 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 43 22 43 28 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 38 11 35 23 / 0 0 30 50
DLN 45 25 42 30 / 0 0 10 10
HVR 34 16 28 15 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 50 30 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
